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MACRO AND INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

Despite price underperformance, a weaker market and general economic pessimism in 2012, the total seaborne market volume increased by about 100 million tons, driven primarily by demand from the Asia-Pacific. Looking ahead, all forecasts point to the Asia-Pacific region continuing to drive global seaborne demand for thermal coal, as European and American economies diversify away from it. Wood Mackenzie projects that the Asia-Pacific region’s share in the global seaborne thermal coal market will rise to over 91% by 2030 from 76% in 2012. Demand in the Pacific basin is expected to grow from 694 million tons in 2012 to over 1.98 billion (!) tons in 2030, while demand in the Atlantic basin will decline from 215 mio. tons in 2012 to 184 mio. tons in 2030.

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